Green Ammonia Market Size: Analysis by Production Method (Electrochemical Water Splitting, Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE), Photocatalysis, and Biochemical Processes), and Application : Global and Regional Demand Supply Trends and Forecast-2024-2030

Market Outlook

The Green Ammonia market size was valued at USD 207 million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4,090 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.7% from 2024 to 2030. The green ammonia market is becoming increasingly important in the shift towards sustainable energy and agriculture. As the focus on decarbonization grows, green ammonia, which is produced using renewable energy sources, is gaining attention as a carbon-free fuel, fertilizer, and energy carrier. Although currently more expensive than traditional ammonia, advancements in production technology and increasing investments are expected to lower costs.

Regions with abundant renewable energy, such as the Middle East and Australia, are at the forefront of development. With the global demand for clean energy and sustainable agriculture on the rise, green ammonia is expected to have a significant role in the future energy landscape.

 

The future of the green ammonia market depends on several key factors: improvements in electrolyzer efficiency that will reduce production costs, the expansion of renewable energy capacity to lower the cost of green hydrogen, and supportive government policies such as subsidies and carbon pricing to encourage green ammonia production. Furthermore, the increasing demand for sustainable fertilizers and carbon-free fuels in the agriculture and energy sectors will strengthen market growth. Investment in large-scale production facilities and infrastructure for transporting and storing green ammonia will also play a crucial role in shaping the market's future path. These factors collectively influence the market's growth and acceptance.

Key opportunities in the green ammonia market include its potential as a carbon-free fuel, particularly in maritime shipping and power generation, where it can significantly reduce emissions. The agricultural sector also presents an opportunity, with green ammonia serving as a sustainable alternative to traditional fertilizers. Moreover, the growing focus on energy storage solutions highlights green ammonia as a feasible medium for transporting and storing renewable energy. Regions with abundant renewable resources, such as the Middle East and Australia, are well-positioned to become major production hubs. Investment in new technologies and infrastructure will further unlock the market's potential, leading to global adoption.

Hypothesis on Increasing Demand for Green Fertilizers

The rising demand for green fertilizers will be driven by growing regulatory pressures, consumer preferences for sustainable agriculture, and the need to reduce the environmental impact of conventional fertilizers, leading to significant growth in the adoption of green ammonia-based fertilizers.

The agriculture sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, largely due to the extensive use of conventional nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are derived from fossil fuels and have high carbon footprints. As concerns over climate change intensify, governments around the world are implementing stricter environmental regulations aimed at reducing emissions and promoting sustainable farming practices. For instance, the European Green Deal aims to cut fertilizer use by 20% and reduce nutrient losses by 50% by 2030. Such policies are putting pressure on the agricultural industry to shift toward green fertilizers, which are produced using renewable energy and offer a more environmentally friendly alternative.

In addition to regulatory factors, consumer demand for sustainably grown products is also driving the adoption of green fertilizers. As more consumers become aware of the environmental impact of their food choices, they are increasingly favoring products that are grown using eco-friendly practices. This shift in consumer behavior is encouraging farmers to adopt green fertilizers to meet market demands and remain competitive.

Green ammonia, produced through renewable energy processes, is emerging as a key solution for reducing the carbon footprint of fertilizers. Unlike traditional ammonia, which is responsible for around 1.8% of global CO2 emissions, green ammonia is produced using carbon-free processes, offering a path to decarbonize fertilizer production.

As the costs of green ammonia production continue to fall due to advancements in technology and scaling, the green fertilizers market is expected to grow significantly, particularly in regions with strong regulatory frameworks and consumer-driven demand.

Factor	Traditional Fertilizers	Green Fertilizers (Ammonia-based)	Key Benefits of Green Fertilizers
Carbon Footprint	High (fossil-fuel-based production)	Low (produced using renewable energy)	Significant reduction in GHG emissions
Government Regulation Impact	Subject to increasing restrictions	Compliant with green agriculture policies	Helps farmers meet regulatory targets
Consumer Preference	Low demand for sustainability	High demand for sustainable products	Growing preference for eco-friendly agricultural products
Cost	Lower initially	Higher, but decreasing	Costs expected to decrease with technology advances
Market Growth (CAGR 2023-2030)	1-2%	12-15%	Driven by regulatory and market pressures

 

Key Insights

The Green Ammonia market in 2023 was dominated by Europe, holding a 38.08% stake. The European green ammonia market presents key opportunities driven by the region's strong commitment to decarbonization and renewable energy. With robust policy support, including the European Green Deal, there is significant potential for green ammonia as a sustainable fertilizer, reducing the carbon footprint in agriculture. Additionally, Europe’s focus on green hydrogen and the development of a hydrogen economy positions green ammonia as a vital energy carrier and storage solution. The region's advanced infrastructure, coupled with investments in renewable energy, creates opportunities for scaling production and establishing Europe as a leader in green ammonia technology and exports.

By production method, Electrochemical Water Splitting accounted for around 66.71% of the Green Ammonia industry in 2023. Electrochemical Water Splitting, a key method for producing green ammonia, faces several challenges. The high energy consumption required for electrolysis, especially from renewable sources, drives up production costs, making green ammonia less competitive compared to conventional ammonia. Additionally, the efficiency of current electrolyzers is still limited, necessitating further technological advancements. Scaling up production to meet global demand is another hurdle, requiring significant investment in infrastructure and renewable energy capacity. Furthermore, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar adds complexity to ensuring a stable and continuous production process, hindering large-scale adoption.

Market Dynamics

Supportive regulations, subsidies, and carbon pricing mechanisms are encouraging the production and adoption of green ammonia, especially in regions committed to climate goals like the EU.

Supportive regulations, subsidies, and carbon pricing mechanisms are pivotal in driving the green ammonia market. In regions like the European Union, where ambitious climate goals are set, these policy measures play a crucial role in fostering green ammonia adoption. Governments are implementing stringent regulations to cut carbon emissions, which incentivize industries to seek sustainable alternatives. Subsidies for renewable energy projects and green technologies reduce the cost burden on producers, making green ammonia more competitive. Carbon pricing mechanisms, such as carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems, impose costs on carbon emissions, further encouraging the shift towards low-carbon solutions like green ammonia. These policies not only help in achieving climate targets but also stimulate innovation and investment in green ammonia production technologies, accelerating their development and market penetration.

Green ammonia is emerging as a key energy carrier, enabling the storage and transport of renewable energy, particularly in regions with excess renewable power.

Green ammonia is emerging as a pivotal energy carrier, offering significant opportunities for storing and transporting renewable energy. As regions with abundant renewable resources, such as wind and solar power, face challenges in managing excess energy production, green ammonia provides a viable solution. It acts as a medium for storing surplus renewable energy in the form of ammonia, which can then be transported and utilized where energy demand is high or where renewable resources are scarce.

                                                             Adoption Rate Table for Green Ammonia as an Energy Carrier

 

This capability is especially valuable in remote or isolated regions that produce renewable energy but lack local infrastructure to use it effectively. Green ammonia can be converted back into hydrogen or used directly as a fuel, offering flexibility in energy applications. Moreover, its high energy density and established infrastructure for ammonia transport and storage further enhance its role as an efficient energy carrier. As global energy systems transition towards sustainability, green ammonia’s ability to integrate renewable energy sources and address energy storage challenges positions it as a key opportunity in the future energy landscape, particularly in areas with significant renewable energy potential.

 

Segmental Analysis

In terms production technology analysis, Green Ammonia market covers Electrochemical Water Splitting, Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE), Photocatalysis, and Biochemical Processes.

                                     

Electrochemical water splitting is gaining traction in the green ammonia market due to its role in producing hydrogen from water using renewable electricity, which is then combined with nitrogen to create ammonia. Key trends in this technology include significant advancements in electrolyzer efficiency and cost reduction. Modern electrolyzers, particularly Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) and Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cells (SOECs), are becoming more efficient and scalable, making green ammonia production more economically viable. Innovations such as improved catalysts and enhanced cell designs are driving these efficiency gains.

The decreasing cost of renewable energy is another critical trend, as the economics of electrochemical water splitting are closely tied to the price of electricity. With the expansion of solar and wind energy, which are becoming more cost-effective, green ammonia production is increasingly competitive with conventional ammonia. Governments and private investors are channeling substantial funds into research and development to further reduce costs and improve technology.

Another notable trend is the integration of electrochemical water splitting with renewable energy projects. Hybrid systems that combine renewable energy generation with electrolysis units are emerging, allowing for efficient use of excess renewable power and facilitating continuous ammonia production. This integration helps address the intermittency issues associated with renewable energy sources.

In addition, there is a growing focus on scaling up production facilities and enhancing the infrastructure for green ammonia. Large-scale projects and partnerships are being developed to support commercial-scale production and distribution, paving the way for broader adoption.

Overall, electrochemical water splitting is positioned as a cornerstone of the green ammonia market, with ongoing advancements in technology, supportive policies, and increasing renewable energy integration driving its growth and adoption in the quest for sustainable energy solutions.

Regional Landscape

In terms of regional analysis, Green Ammonia market covers the study of North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, South America and Middle East and Africa.

Europe Green Ammonia market size was valued at USD 78.9 million in 2023 and is estimated to reach a value of USD 1,268.6 million by 2030 with a CAGR of 53.1% during the forecast period. The European green ammonia industry is ripe with key opportunities driven by the region’s commitment to sustainability and its robust renewable energy infrastructure. Europe’s ambitious climate goals, outlined in the European Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package, provide a solid foundation for the growth of green ammonia as a critical component in the transition to a low-carbon economy. One of the foremost opportunities lies in leveraging Europe’s extensive renewable energy resources, particularly wind and solar power, to produce green ammonia. The region's investments in offshore wind farms and solar energy can be directly coupled with electrolysis technologies to create ammonia sustainably, addressing both energy storage and transportation challenges.

                                         

Additionally, Europe’s focus on decarbonizing agriculture presents a significant opportunity for green ammonia. As a key ingredient in fertilizers, green ammonia can replace conventional ammonia produced from fossil fuels, reducing the carbon footprint of agricultural practices. The European Union’s emphasis on sustainable agriculture and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) further supports this transition.

The development of large-scale green ammonia production hubs, such as the North Sea Wind Power Hub, offers another opportunity. This hub aims to integrate offshore wind energy with hydrogen and ammonia production, positioning Europe as a global leader in green ammonia exports. Furthermore, the EU’s regulatory framework, which includes carbon pricing and emission reduction targets, creates a favorable environment for green ammonia by increasing the cost competitiveness of low-carbon solutions.

Investments in research and development are also fostering innovation in green ammonia technologies. Europe’s strong support for clean energy research is driving advancements in electrolyzer efficiency and ammonia synthesis, which will further enhance market viability. Collaborative projects and public-private partnerships are accelerating these developments, making Europe a pivotal player in the global green ammonia market.

Competitive Landscape

Some of the major companies operating within the Green Ammonia market are: Nel Hydrogen, Siemens Energy, MAN Energy Solutions, ThyssenKrupp AG, ITM Power PLC, Hydrogenics, Green Hydrogen Systems, McPhy Energy, Electrochaea, EXYTRON, AquaHydrex, Enapter, BASF SE, Yara International, ENGIE, Uniper, Haldor Topsoe, Starfire Energy, Queensland Nitrates Pty Ltd, Hiringa Energy and others.

Recent Developments:

In September 2023, OPAL Fuels and South Jersey Industries, an energy infrastructure holding company, formed a joint venture to develop, construct, own, and operate facilities for renewable natural gas (RNG).

In August 2022, Uniper SE entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with EverWind Fuels to purchase green ammonia from EverWind’s initial production facility in Nova Scotia. The two companies plan to negotiate a binding offtake agreement for an annual supply of 500,000 tonnes of green ammonia.

In January 2022, ITM Power signed a contract with YARA International, an EPC company, to supply a 24 MW electrolyzer. This electrolyzer was agreed to be installed at a site operated by Yara Norge AS.

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FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. What is the average price of Green Ammonia?

Average selling price of Green Ammonia ranges from USD 1,000-1,200 per tons

2. Which production method holds major share within the Green Ammonia industry?

Electrochemical Water Splitting based method dominate the market with a share of 66.71% in 2023.

3. Which region is estimated to emerge as a fastest growing region within the Green Ammonia market?

Asia Pacific is estimated to emerge as a fastest growing region with a CAGR of 65% during the forecast period 2024-2030.